Diplomatic crisis deepens between China and Japan

The diplomatic fallout between China and Japan continues after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks earlier this month about military intervention in a hypothetical blockade of Taiwan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning on Monday pushed back against suggestions from Japanese officials that China was overreacting, telling reporters the prime minister had violated the spirit of existing agreements between the two countries. “We urge the Japanese side to stop crossing the line and playing with fire, retract its erroneous words and deeds, and effectively reflect its commitment to China in practical actions,” she said.

Why It Matters

Takaichi made her controversial statement during a parliamentary committee meeting on November 7, saying a Chinese military blockade of the self-ruled island would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan and grounds for “collective self-defense.” This is a rare provision in Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution that would permit the use of force in defense of an ally—in this case, hypothetical U.S. forces coming to Taiwan’s aid.

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has stepped up military exercises around the island in recent years, prompting Taipei to boost defense spending. Tokyo has also increased defense outlays and expanded joint exercises with the U.S. and other friendly militaries in the region. The Defense Ministry had said it considers China’s growing expanding military presence in the region its greatest security challenge.

In the 1972 Joint Communique normalizing ties with China, Japan acknowledged the country’s claim over Taiwan without explicitly endorsing it.”

Newsweek reached out by email to Takaichi’s office and the Chinese Foreign Ministry with requests for comment.

What To Know

Takaichi’s remarks were the strongest yet from a Japanese leader on the potential for military involvement, infuriating Beijing, which threatened a “severe blow” should Tokyo cross what China’s government calls its bottom line over Taiwan.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japanese Ambassador Kenji Kanasugi on Friday to express “firm opposition” to Takaichi’s comments and her refusal to retract them, according to a ministry statement.

Also on Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry issued a travel alert, claiming that the “safety environment” for Chinese citizens in Japan had deteriorated. Several Chinese airlines then announced that travelers who purchased flights to Japan—a popular destination this time of year among Chinese—could refund or change their tickets free of charge.

Since Saturday, nearly half-a-million cancellations have been recorded, accounting for about one-third of total bookings, independent analyst Li Hanming told the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, Chinese online commentators with links to the Chinese government have engaged in saber-rattling, vowing decisive military action against Japanese forces in the event of a hypothetical intervention. Some have also seized the opportunity to revive familiar nationalist rhetoric, invoking longstanding grievances over Japan’s subjugation of much of China in the 1930s and 40s.

The legacy of the occupation continues has long cast a shadow over Tokyo-Beijing relations. Although successive Japanese governments have issued apologies, Chinese officials maintain that Japanese leaders, including Takaichi, have not gone far enough to acknowledge war crimes fully.

“Coming, as it is, from a veteran politician, it is hard to dismiss her statement as an act of carelessness arising from a lack of experience,” wrote Chen Weihua, former head of the China Daily’s European Union Bureau, wrote in an op-ed for the state media outlet.

“Even more so because it aligns with her long-standing views as a China hawk and an ultra-right-wing politician with revisionist views on World War II and one who is insensitive to the sufferings people in neighboring countries underwent because of Japanese atrocities.”

Takaichi has resisted calls from China and opposition lawmakers to retract her remarks.

China’s consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian posted, and later deleted, a tweet appearing to threaten to decapitate the prime minister. The post sparked outrage in Japan, with lawmakers and social-media users calling for Xue to be declared persona non grata and expelled.

What People Are Saying

Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told reporters during Monday’s regular press conference: “”I can tell you that Premier Li Qiang does not have a meeting arrangement with Japanese leaders,”

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry wrote in a November 11 statement “that its sovereignty belongs to the Taiwanese people; that neither the [Republic of China] nor the People’s Republic of China is subordinate to the other; and that the PRC has never governed Taiwan […]

“As a responsible nation in the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan will continue to build up its self-defense capabilities and work closely with all like-minded countries to jointly maintain peace, stability, and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait and throughout the region.”

The Republic of China is the official name of Taiwan’s government.

George Glass, U.S. ambassador to Japan, wrote in a statement he posted on social media: “Like the G7 partnership, the U.S.-Japan Alliance is steadfast in its resolve to preserve peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, as part of a free and open Indo-Pacific. And we strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo of the region through force or coercion.”

Jeffrey Hall, a special lecturer in Japanese studies at Kanda University of International Studies in Chiba, wrote on X: “[Takaichi’s] statements broke with past administrations’ strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, but the scenario of the Japan Self Defense Forces being involved in the defense of Taiwan would take place after the undemocratic and authoritarian People’s Republic of China launched a war of aggression against the democratic Republic of China.”

What Happens Next

Amid the diplomatic uproar, Takaichi appears to retain strong public support. A Kyodo News poll released Sunday found 69.9 percent of respondents back her cabinet, a 5.5-point increase from a survey taken ahead of her swearing-in in late October.

Takaichi’s proposal to further raise defense spending to 2 percent of Japan’s GDP is supported by 60.4 percent of those polled, while 34.7 percent are opposed. However, Japanese opinion is more divided on whether to exercise collective self-defense in the event of a Taiwan conflict, with 48.8 percent in favor and 44.2 percent opposed.

While the U.S. is Taiwan’s main source of weaponry, Washington does not comment on whether it would commit forces to Taiwan’s defense, a policy known as strategic ambiguity.