Asian stocks ease ahead of rate decisions after rally sparked by US-Iran deal
Hormuz ‘is already partially opened’ and ‘it’ll be completely opened’ on Friday, says Trump
Published Tue, Jun 16, 2026 · 10:42 AM
ASIAN stocks wavered as investors paused to assess the durability of the relief rally fuelled by the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while awaiting rate decisions in Australia and Japan.
MSCI’s gauge of regional shares dropped as much as 0.3 per cent in early trading before paring the decline.
US equity futures slipped after the S&P 500 added 1.7 per cent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rallied 3.1 per cent on Monday (Jun 15). Brent crude edged higher to trade around US$83.40 a barrel after its biggest drop in more than two weeks.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the first time in 2026 amid signs the economy is beginning to soften, while the Bank of Japan is widely seen raising the benchmark rate to the highest level since 1995. The decisions begin a packed week for global central banks, with the US Federal Reserve also set to announce a policy decision on Jun 17.
“Markets will take time to settle, Hormuz flows will take time to normalise, and inventories will need to be replenished,” ANZ Bank economists including Matthew Galt wrote in a note. “We therefore see few immediate implications for central banks’ reaction functions. At the margin, a deal, if successful, may reduce pressure to tighten policy, but developments over the coming months will be closely monitored.”
US President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, a senior US official said in a call with reporters. Hormuz “is already partially opened” and “it’ll be completely opened” on Friday, Trump said during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Global stocks and bonds climbed on Monday as the US-Iran deal spurred a decline in oil prices and raised hopes that the war that has jolted markets since the end of February may be close to an end.
Investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, watching for signs whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal and assessing if the peace accord will hold.
A gauge of global equities was down 0.1 per cent on Tuesday, snapping a three-day rally. The US dollar and 10-year Treasuries were steady.
Economists expect the US Fed to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 per cent as it meets under new Chairman Kevin Warsh for the first time. Swaps traders are pricing in less than an 80 per cent chance of a quarter-point Fed hike by December.
The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank are widely anticipated to stand pat. The European Central Bank on Jun 11 raised rates for the first time in almost three years, with President Christine Lagarde warning inflation triggered by the Iran war is widening beyond just energy.
“We’re closely watching how Warsh frames the balance between growth and inflation and any changes Warsh signals on Fed communication, such as reducing reliance on forward guidance to signal how it might act on policy rates next,” BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Li Wei wrote in a report. “That potentially makes the Fed’s policy changes a source of volatility as investors try to infer future moves from fewer clues.”
Traders will also be watching a slew of economic data releases from China on Tuesday, including retail sales and industrial production for May. BLOOMBERG
